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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review  
  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--2016, 5 (3-4)   Published: 2016-12-15
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Performance of Tropical Cyclone Forecast in Western North Pacific in 2015

Guomin CHEN, Xiaotu LEI, Xiping ZHANG, Peiyan CHEN, Hui YU, Rijin WAN
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2016, 5 (3-4): 47
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The operational track and intensity forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific in 2015 were evaluated on the basis of RSMC-Tokyo’s “best-track” dataset. The results showed that position errors for each official agency were under 80 km, 130 km, 180 km, 260 km and 370 km at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hr lead time. Stepped decreases in the values of each quantile were made at every lead times and have been made by global models from 2010 to 2015, especially for long lead time. The results of the Track Forecast Integral Deviation (TFID) show a clearly decreasing trend for most global models, indicating that the TC forecast tracks became increasingly similar to the observations. In 2015, the intensity forecast skill scores for both global and regional models were almost negative. However, the skill of EPSs’ intensity forecasting has made significant progress in the past year.

Interdecadal Change of Korea Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Its Possible Association with PDO

Jae-Won Choi, Yumi Cha, Hae-Dong Kim
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2016, 5 (3-4): 58;  doi: 10.6057/2016TCRRh3.04
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The present study verified that Korea landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) frequency was rapidly increased since 1981 through the statistical change-point analysis. The increase was due to the formation of anomalous southerlies around Korea from the low latitude ultimately because anomalous cyclone was strengthened in East Asia continent due to the movement of western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) to the east whereas anomalous anticyclone was strengthened in the western North Pacific. The anomalous southerlies played a role in steering flow that moved TCs generated in the subtropical western North Pacific to Korea. In order to determine the cause of strengthening of anomalous cyclone in East Asia continent, a snow depth during the preceding spring (March-May) was analyzed. The analysis result showed that most regions in East Asia had lower snow depth than that before 1981. Thus, anomalous cyclone can be developed in the region during summer due to heating in East Asia continent, which was started from the preceding spring, thereby forming a steering flow of anomalous southerlies that can move TCs into Korea. Furthermore, a correlation analysis between Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Korea landfalling TC frequency verified that negative correlation was somewhat stronger after 1981.

WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP) Progress and Future Plans

Xiaotu Lei, Hui Yu, Guomin Chen, Barbara Brown, Sai Tick Chan, Ajit Tyagi
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2016, 5 (3-4): 72;  doi: 10.6057/2016TCRRh3.01
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The “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP)” was started in May 2010 in conjunction with the start of the Shanghai World Expo 2010. The project was successful in terms of assisting the local forecasters in providing an efficient tropical cyclone (TC) forecast service for World Expo 2010, demonstrating the performance of the most up-to-date techniques in TC forecasting, and enhancing the ability of forecasters to effectively use products based on advanced TC forecasting techniques. The first phase was completed in December 2012 and the second phase was completed in December 2015. The third phase (TLFDP-III) started in 2016.
During its first (2010-2012) and second (2013-2015) phases, TLFDP collected real-time TC forecast products from 15 Typhoon Forecast Product Providers (TFPPs). The products include deterministic track and intensity forecasts, ensemble track and intensity forecasts, deterministic wind radii forecasts, wind probability forecasts, and gridded model outputs. The products were disseminated through the project’s website and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center.
TLFDP has made significant progress in TC forecast verification, including setting up the tools for both realtime and post-season TC forecast verification, developing and integrating several new verification techniques, carrying out a survey on the operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, and contributing to the WMO document “Verification of tropical cyclone forecasts”. The post-season forecast verification was reported to the Session of the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since 2013. New consensus methods for TC track and intensity forecasts were also proposed either based on Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) products or multiple deterministic NWP model products.
Two training workshops on TC forecasting were organized by the TLFDP and held in Shanghai, China, in May 2010 and June 2012, respectively, and seven research fellowship projects were implemented as jointly supported by the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Hong Kong Observatory.
In its third phase (TLFDP-III, 2016-2018), the project will continue its effort on demonstration and evaluation of the newly developed forecasting techniques for TCs, and developing and documenting advanced guidance for the verification of TC forecasts, with special attention to TC intensity and precipitation.

Verification of Extreme Rainfall in Typhoon Soudelor (1513) with the Model Evaluation Tools (Met)

Sangil Pak, Hakil Ri
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2016, 5 (3-4): 85;  doi: 10.6057/2016TCRRh3.02
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The extreme rainfall forecast performances of both of ECMWF-IFS and ECMWF-EPS with MET version 5.1 were examined in landing Typhoon Soudelor(1513) with 60h lead times. In this study the programs for converting ECMWF’s forecast data (both of ECMWF-IFS and ECMWF-EPS) format into that needed by MET were developed. Also, during landfall, the observed maximum 6-hour accumulated rainfall was investigated, and then the verification of extreme rainfall in Soudelor was carried out. Results showed that while traditional verification gives relatively low scores, by the method for object-based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) the significant rainy areas were well predicted in this case study.

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