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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review  
  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--2017, 6 (1-2)   Published: 2017-05-15
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The impact of tropical cyclones on China in 2016

Hua Gu, Chuanhai Qian, Shuanzhu Gao, Chunyi Xiang
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2017, 6 (1-2): 1;  doi: 10.6057/2017TCRRh1.01
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In 2016, the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea registered the genesis of 26 tropical cyclones. 8 of them, including NEPARTAK (1601), MIRINAE (1603), NIDA (1604), DIANMU (1608), MERANTI (1614), MEGI (1617), SARIKA (1621) and HAIMA (1622), made landfall over China's coastal areas. The number one TC of 2016, NEPARTAK, was named on July 3. Although no typhoon generated in the first half of this year, which means 4.6 incidences less compared with the same period of a normal year, more tropical cyclones made landfall over China (the historical average in the same period of 1949-2015 is 6.7). And these 8 tropical cyclones had an averaged intensity up to 40.6 m/s, significantly enhanced compared with the multi-year average of 32.8 m/s. The death toll from the 11 tropical cyclones affected China in 2016 is 206. MERANTI was the most destructive one in 2016, which brought up the largest numbers of affected and evacuated population, damaged houses and direct economic losses. In 2016, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) 24-120 h mean official track forecast errors were 66, 127, 213, 292 and 364 km, respectively. The 24 h track forecast error has been kept within 70 km in two consecutive years.

Performance of Tropical Cyclone Forecast in Western North Pacific in 2016

Guomin Chen, Xiping Zhang, Peiyan Chen, Hui Yu, Rijin Wan
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2017, 6 (1-2): 13;  doi: 10.6057/2017TCRRh1.02
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The forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) in 2016 from 5 official guidances, 5 global models, 3 regional models and 6 ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capabilities of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific. In 2016, the position errors for each official agency were under 85, 150 and 250 km at the lead times of 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively, indicating the performance of track forecasts was a little worse than that in 2015. For each lead time, decreases were seen for each quantile value of the global models from 2010 to 2015; however, this progress in forecasts was stagnated or was reversed in 2016, especially for long lead times. A new error tracking tool, called a “Track Error Rose”, was used to visualize the spatial distributions of the track forecast error relative to the observed TC center. The results show that as lead time increases, the moving speed of most global model TC forecasts becomes slower than those of the observations, and the largest track error often appears to the south of the observation position. In 2016, JMA-GSM, NCEP-GFS, STI-GRAPES
and UKMO-MetUM made considerable progress in their intensity forecasts at lead times of 24 and 48 h, and the EPS intensity forecasts made significant progress compared to those of 2015.

Typhoon Positioning Method Using Dual-Radar Zero Radial Velocity Lines and Preliminary Test

Hongya LIU, Hui WANG, Liangbo QI, Jing ZHANG
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2017, 6 (1-2): 26;  doi: 10.6057/2017TCRRh1.03
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Timely and relatively accurate detection of the center position of a near-landfalling typhoon is essential for weather forecasts, warning, disaster preparedness and data assimilation. Due to the vortex like nature of the flow near the typhoon center, the Zero Radial Velocity Line (ZRVL) of a Doppler radar extends through the typhoon center and the radar site. This paper proposes a method to detect the typhoon center by intersecting the ZRVLs of a dual-Doppler radar system. Simulation with Rankine Vortex model shows the validity of this method. This paper also evaluated the method by locating the centers of Typhoon FUNG-WONG (No. 201416) which impacted the east coastal regions of China from the afternoon of 22 September to the morning of 23 September, 2014 BST (Beijing Standard Time). During this period, the centers of the coastal typhoon were precisely positioned by intersecting the ZRVLs of two Doppler radars. The positioning accuracy of this method is comparable to that from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) wind data. This method is suitable for areas where AWS data are unavailable, supposing radars are apart 100 km with a maximum unambiguous distance of 148km, this technique can cover most regions effectively.

Post-Disaster Survey of Typhoon Megi in Wenzhou City

Yi Lu, Hui Yu, Qiuzhen Yang, Ming Xu, Feng Zheng
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2017, 6 (1-2): 34;  doi: 10.6057/2017TCRRh1.04
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This paper reports the post-disaster results due to Typhoon Megi. The survey was conducted by a joint survey team of Shanghai Typhoon Institute in 14 December 2016, with the support of Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau and some meteorological departments in disaster areas. The survey results show that Typhoon Megi brought torrential rain and heavy rainstorm to the southern of Wenzhou City. The precipitation characters of Typhoon Megi are strong intensity, high accumulation, long duration and broken historical record. Typhoon winds affected wide,with large peripheral wind. According to the needs of defense and emergency rescue of Typhoon Megi, Wenzhou meteorological departments made every effort, including closely monitor, strengthening consultation, roll forecast, timely warning, active reporting, and targeted service. In order to provide scientific reference for government decision, the service of weather protection and disaster relief were done well. The results of typhoon forecast shows as follows. (1) The track, landing location and time of typhoon forecast were basically consistent with the actual situation. (2) The wind forecast was close to the actual. (3) The forecasted area precipitation was slightly lower, and the extreme value of process precipitation was too low. While the prediction of Dongtou Island Station was too high, this investigation shows that we are still insufficient in forecasting precipitation grades of typhoons breaking historical records, especially for precipitation quantification and meticulous prediction. In this case, more attention should be paid as below. 1) Effect of topography on precipitation enhancement. 2) Summary of similar cases. 3) Improve the defense ability and residents' awareness of risk. 4) Combine modern methods of early warning information with traditional methods. 5) Quantitative, fixed-pointed and precision forecast. 6) Rapid access of referent information to forecasters. 7) Modern monitoring technology (3S, unmanned aerial vehicle) should be used for disaster investigation, monitor and hidden trouble detection. 8) Carry out the renovation of the engineering construction design standards, impact assessment and structure of buildings.

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